The forecast model every startup needs (with template). | VC & Startup Jobs.

Inside Lovable’s viral loop & Why VCs pass on profitable startups and chase hype instead ?

👋 Hey, Sahil here! Welcome to this bi-weekly venture curator newsletter, where we dive into the world of startups, growth, product building, and venture capital. In today’s newsletter -

• Deep Dive: The forecast model every startup needs (with template).

• Quick Dive:

  • Inside Lovable’s viral loop and where it might break.

  • Why VCs pass on profitable startups and chase hype instead?

• Major News: Meta poaches Sutskever’s AI startup CEO, Mysterious Bitcoin wallet wakes up after 14 years, TikTok building new US-specific app ahead of sale, Tech billionaires launch new bank for startups, Lovable to raise $150 Million & Microsoft to lay off 9,000 employees.

• 20+ VC & Startups job opportunities.

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📬 VENTURE CURATORS’ FINDING

My favourite finds of the week

• The ultimate guide to starting a startup.

• Y Combinator's guide to seed fundraising...

• What investors ask and how to answer: A practical Q&A prep kit for founders.

• The 5-question method to build a winning startup elevator pitch.

• The lean startup is dead.

• The only startup valuation guide you need as a founder.

• Why the future of AI is social by Every.

• 40 real startup pitch decks that raised $350M+ (Including leading startups decks).

• All-in-one term sheet guide for founders.

• 2029 private market horizons report.

• Investor data room guide & templates for founders.

• How to find the right customers for your MVP?

• Investor data room guide & templates for founders.

• This AI-powered social game makes $200K/month letting you roleplay online fame.

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📜 TODAY’S DEEP DIVE

The forecast model every startup needs (with template).

Running a startup can feel like captaining a boat through a storm. You’re blindfolded. The compass is broken. And you’re mostly guessing.

That’s where a financial forecast model comes in. First thing - it won’t tell you the future. But it will help you see what’s coming, make smarter decisions, and stretch your cash in the right direction.

If “building a financial model” sounds complex, overwhelming, or like something you’ll “do later”... good news: is it doesn’t have to be. We’ve created a straightforward forecast model template you can copy, customize, and actually use.

Let’s walk through why every founder (yes, even early-stage) should have one and what to focus on.

Why you need a forecast model, even if you’re still pre-product

1. Cash is oxygen

Forget “cash is king.” For startups, cash is air.

Without it, you’re done. A forecast model helps you project income and expenses across time, so you’re not surprised when the runway gets tight. Instead of reacting when you're gasping, you’re making moves ahead of time.

2. Speak the language of money

Investors. Board members. Loan officers. Even vendors.

They all want to see that you’ve got a handle on your finances. A forecast model helps you show not just say that you’re building with a plan. It proves you’re not winging it, even if it feels like that some days.

3. Get better at saying no

Startups are full of decisions that sound exciting: “Let’s ramp up ads!” or “Let’s hire three more engineers!”

But can you afford to do that and still build the product? A forecast model helps you understand tradeoffs, prioritize resources, and stay focused on the metrics that matter.

4. Know what really moves the needle

Whether your goal is acquisition, profitability, or that next funding round your forecast helps you zoom out and see what truly impacts your outcomes.

For example: improving retention by just 5% might move revenue way more than launching that new feature you’re debating.

So... what actually goes into a good forecast model?

Financial Forecase model template

Let’s break it down into five core sections you should focus on, especially in the early stages:

1. Customer acquisition

Think about how you attract new customers. Break it into clear channels like:

• Performance marketing: Ads, paid campaigns, etc. (Track CAC!)

• Sales team productivity: Deals won per rep.

• Organic growth: SEO, word of mouth, referrals.

Start simple, don’t overcomplicate with 10 variables per channel. Use broad assumptions, then refine with real data over time.

2. Customer retention

Acquiring a customer means nothing if you can’t keep them. Your model should reflect how long customers stay, and when they tend to churn.

Use cohort analysis or a basic monthly churn rate. Ask:

• Do customers stay longer if they activate early?

• Are certain channels bringing in stickier customers?

Retention is also your best indicator of product-market fit.

3. Revenue

Revenue should be tied directly to customer activity:

• For SaaS, it’s subscription price × active customers.

• For marketplaces, it could be volume × take rate.

Start with average revenue per user (ARPU), and evolve into more granular views as you scale.

4. Expenses

Your biggest expense? People. Use a headcount plan to map out salaries, hiring timelines, and team functions. Other key categories include:

• COGS: Hosting, inventory, services delivered.

• Marketing spend: Performance + brand.

• Tools & software: Scale with team size and complexity.

• Office, travel, services: Keep it lean unless proven otherwise.

Don’t default to “% of revenue” unless you have no better data. You control your budget, make it intentional.

5. Cash flow + runway

At the end of the day, it’s about how long your cash lasts. Forecasting your runway (how many months you can operate before running out of money) helps guide:

• Fundraising timelines

• Hiring plans

• Growth investments

Always stress-test with multiple scenarios:

• Best-case (aggressive growth)

• Base-case (reasonable assumptions)

• Worst-case (conservative path)

Tips to get started (without burning out)

• Start simple. This isn’t a Wall Street IPO model. It’s your startup’s guiding tool.

• Update monthly. Compare forecast vs. actuals. Adjust your assumptions.

• Don’t aim for perfection. Aim for utility. It’s better to have a rough, usable model than a flawless one that sits unopened.

• Think of it as a living document. Not a one-time exercise.

Remember your forecast model = your strategy, in numbers

You don’t build a model because investors ask. You build it to understand your own business better. To make smarter decisions. To align your team. To spot problems early and act on them.

“The real magic happens when you strike a balance between planning and doing.”

You can use this financial model template to create one for your startup.

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📃 QUICK DIVES

1. Inside Lovable’s viral loop and where it might break.

Lovable is reportedly the fastest-growing startup in the world right now. Its promise? Turn simple prompts into high-fidelity, interactive product prototypes. Describe your app idea in a sentence or two, and Lovable builds a functional UI around it no coding, no design tools.

It’s the kind of magical AI experience that spreads fast. But the more you dig in, the more you notice something strange.

Subtle Software recently shared an article discussing the same topic. Here are a few points and takeaways worth considering it’s a valuable read for any founder building products.

Image Source: UX Collectives

The product is good but not great. It gets close, but often makes small mistakes. UI elements misalign, interactions don’t quite match, and it usually takes a few extra prompts to get things looking right.

That’s where the real business model kicks in.

Lovable’s free tier gives you just five prompts per day. And you’ll probably burn through them fast not because you’re experimenting, but because the tool doesn’t get it right on the first try.

Which leads to an important insight that most people miss:

There’s a perverse incentive: the less perfect the output, the more prompts you use, and the more likely you are to pay.

This doesn’t mean it’s intentional but it does raise questions. If the product became too efficient, fewer people would hit the paywall. Slowing down the path to revenue growth.

And yet, that friction combined with the delight of seeing your idea come to life creates a powerful loop. People talk about it. Share it. Growth explodes.

But is it sustainable?

For many users, Lovable feels like a one-time thrill. You try it, show it off, maybe even build a quick MVP. But then you hit limits:

• It’s not always production-ready

• You still need to clean up the UI

• There’s no clear handoff into actual deployment

So retention becomes the big question.

A growing number of product people believe the real future of tools like Lovable isn’t for indie builders it’s for agencies and product teams who want to iterate faster, prototype collaboratively, and cut out weeks of back-and-forth.

Imagine replacing a static slide deck with a live prototype. The team and the client sit in the same room, making changes together. That’s a powerful workflow shift and Lovable 2.0 is betting big on it.

Still, the competition is rising fast. Designers have mentioned tools like v0 as better alternatives. Dev-first platforms like Vercel may offer smoother integrations. And larger players like GitHub or OpenAI could easily roll out competing products with better polish and deeper ecosystems.

Here’s the takeaway:

• Text-to-app tools are magical, but still early. They’re great for ideation, not yet great for production.

• Paywall design matters. If users are paying because the tool makes mistakes, not because it delivers value that’s a long-term risk.

• The winners will be platforms, not demos. The tools that become sticky will be the ones teams build into their actual workflow.

Lovable may be growing faster than any other startup—but that kind of growth comes with a catch. If users don’t stick, or if competitors catch up, that rocketship can stall just as fast.

The excitement is real. But so is the churn risk.

2. Why do VCs pass on profitable startups and chase hype instead?

Every founder has felt it: that sting of watching a hype-fueled startup with no product and no revenue raise millions, while your cash-flow-positive, growing business struggles to even get a meeting.

It feels unfair. And it is.

But there’s a deeper logic behind it. One that has little to do with how “good” your business is and everything to do with how venture capital works.

Recently, Steve Blank broke down why so many real businesses with customers, revenue, and even profits often fail to attract VC attention. The core idea? Venture capital isn’t built to fund good businesses. It’s built to fund massive ones.

Most founders misunderstand what investors are actually looking for. They assume that solid traction and profitability should be enough.

But venture capital follows a different playbook entirely.

Here’s what many founders miss:

• VCs are in the business of power-law outcomes. They need 10x–100x returns to make their math work. A steady-growing $20M company might be a great business but it’s not the billion-dollar rocket ship they’re hunting for.

• Your startup is a financial instrument. The moment you raise venture money, your company becomes part of a portfolio. Investors aren't just betting on your growth they’re betting on a future exit (IPO, acquisition, or secondary sale) within 7-10 years.

• Perception drives value. Especially now, when IPOs are rare and secondaries are a popular liquidity path, what matters is how compelling your company looks to the next investor in line. The story you’re telling has to be big, bold, and believable.

This is also why certain sectors become hot overnight. Once a few top-tier firms back AI companies, everyone wants in. The result?

Image Source: tech in asia

• Floods of capital chase a handful of “hot” categories

• Even questionable ideas get funded if they have the right narrative

• Meanwhile, proven but “unsexy” companies get ignored

And secondaries have quietly changed the game. With fewer public exits, many investors are making money by selling their stakes to other funds. These aren’t new shares, they’re early investors cashing out while the company is still private.

But this only works if the startup’s perceived value keeps rising so hype and optics matter more than ever.

So what can you do?

• Understand the game. Your business may be amazing, but that doesn’t mean it’s venture-scalable. And that’s okay.

• Match your story to the investor. Some funds chase trends. Others back overlooked gems. Know which one you’re pitching.

• Don’t assume they’ll “get it.” You have to show them why your company can be massive and do it in a way that aligns with their timelines, incentives, and risk appetite.

Because once you take VC money, their model becomes your reality. If you don’t fit what they’re looking for or don’t know how to frame your business in a way that does you’ll keep hearing “no” for reasons that have nothing to do with the actual quality of what you’re building.

And if you do have the kind of story they’re chasing? Now’s the time to go big. Just remember: what they want isn’t a business. It’s a breakout.

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THIS WEEK’S NEWS RECAP

🗞️ Major News In Tech, VC, & Startup Funding

New In VC

• Phosphor Capital, a venture firm founded by YC alum Kulveer Taggar, has raised $34M across two funds to back Y Combinator startups, with support from Garry Tan. (Read)

• Recognise Partners, an NYC-based investor in and builder of new digital services companies, closed its second fund, Recognise II, with over $1.7 billion in total commitments. (Read)

• AN Venture Partners (ANV), a San Francisco, CA- and Tokyo, Japan-based global biotech venture capital firm, closed its first fund, AN Venture Partners I, at USD200m (JPY29 billion). (Read)

• Catalio Capital Management, LP, a healthcare investment firm, closed its fourth venture fund, Catalio Nexus Fund IV, with over $400M in commitments. (Read)

Major Tech Updates

• Ilya Sutskever is now CEO of Safe Superintelligence after co-founder Daniel Gross departed; Daniel Levy becomes president. (Read)

• A whale moved 80,000 BTC worth $8.6 billion that had been sitting untouched for 14 years, transferring the entire amount to new crypto addresses on Friday. (Read)

• ChatGPT referrals to news sites have grown 25x since early 2024, but they remain too small to offset the sharp decline in search-based traffic caused by AI Overviews. (Read)

• Figma filed its S-1, showing $821M in rolling 12-month revenue, 91% gross margin, and a return to profitability after a 2023 loss due to a one-time stock comp expense. (Read)

• Grammarly has acquired email client Superhuman to expand its AI productivity suite; financial terms were not disclosed. (Read)

New Startup Deals

• Hived, a London, UK-based AI-powered parcel delivery network built for ecommerce, raised $42m in Series B funding. (Read)

• Castelion, a U.S. hypersonic weapons startup founded by ex-SpaceX execs, is raising a $350M Series B led by Lightspeed and Altimeter Capital. (Read)

• Terra CO2, a Golden, CO-based own-carbon building materials company, raised US$124.5M in new equity capital. (Read)

• Wonderful, an Israeli developer of an AI agents’ platform, raised $34m in seed funding. (Read)

• Tailor, a San Francisco, CA-based headless ERP platform for modern retail businesses, raised an additional $8m in close of its Series A. (Read)

→ Get the most important startup funding, venture capital & tech news. Join 45,000+ early adopters staying ahead of the curve for free. Subscribe to the Venture Daily Digest Newsletter.

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• Investor - Griffin Gaming Partner | USA - Apply Here

• Investor (AI) - Samsung Next | USA - Apply Here

• Investment Fellow - Outward VC | UK - Apply Here

• Operations Associate - Techstars | USA - Apply Here

• Associate - Investor Relations - Kinetic Investment | USA - Apply Here

• Investment Trainee (US) - Hashkey Capital | USA - Apply Here

• Associate - Episode 1 Venture | UK - Apply Here

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✍️Written By Sahil R | Advertise